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Fuel Prices: Navigating Winter Heating Costs
As winter's icy grip fastens, are you prepared for the hike in heating costs? With nearly half of U.S households warming their homes with natural gas, many are in for a shock as heating costs skyrocket by 28% compared to last winter. But wait, there's hope! This episode provides tips on how to make savvy long-term investments like insulating your home and replacing old windows, particularly for homeowners in Northeast with older homes. Discover how you can protect yourself from the chill without breaking the bank.
Ever wondered about the rising popularity of electric heat pumps and resistance heaters? Here's a spoiler - they're revolutionizing the way we heat our homes. To add to that, residential electricity prices are soaring by 6% compared to last winter. We delve into the intricate web of electricity generation, discussing the potential of alternative fuel sources like wind, solar, and nuclear energy in reducing your electricity bill.
Finally, we tackle fuel storage, gas systems, and electric systems, offering insights into the best options for heating based on your geographical location and individual needs. We expose you to a real-life example of a customer opting for solar panels and a battery bank, illuminating the practical benefits of these choices. As the mercury dips, uncover the truth behind the rise in fuel prices, the push towards electrification, and some intriguing conspiracy theories. Tune in to stay warm this winter, both literally and financially!
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Eric Aune @mechanicalhub
Andy Mickelson @mick_plumb
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And I fill up these 35 gallon barrels and then I take them home and then hand transfer, pump them out into my heating tank. Oh my, you're kidding me.
Speaker 2:When we're on the air. Look at that, defunding the IRS. Today we're going to talk about money, money, money, money, money, I guess, as it relates to home heating, because it's that time of year, you know, I was thinking back, andy, I was plowing snow listening to our episode. So it was this last winter. We talked about heating sources, heating heating, heating fuels for homes, you know, natural gas, electric. We're doing comparisons. What was the most expensive? That kind of thing.
Speaker 2:And without telling you the episode number, everybody, I can't remember it right now. We should have looked that up. Remember, we're going to look that up. Yeah, that up. We did a comparison. It was a breakdown, what it costs to heat with certain fuels and it was interesting and we couldn't believe how expensive oil was. Remember that. I think we were trying to figure out, like, is it really going to make sense to use a heat pump to heat your house in the cold? But either way, we're coming up on, winter is getting cold. Here in the Midwest for the first time, we are starting to see heating systems turning on, and it's that time of year, so let's talk about heating. Everybody, welcome to the make trades. Great to get podcast. I'm Eric, he's Andy, andy, how you doing, man, I'm doing pretty darn good Awesome.
Speaker 1:Awesome. It's another day in the in the trenches here it seems like, um, we've just it in the use you mentioned. You guys are just kind of starting to get to the heating season and just starting to, you know, turn that equipment on and people are starting to call. We've been in it for I don't know the last week. We've been in the low fifties for highs and you know it's been, it's been chilly in the morning and we've we've had a bunch of them that are like oh this didn't work last time.
Speaker 1:We turned it on very well and you know, I'm like, oh, that sucks.
Speaker 2:Yeah, exactly you know.
Speaker 1:so, anyway, we're, we're out, we're out doing it, we're slogging through. We got a pile of boiler services that came in here just in the last week. So you know, yeah, a couple of property managers that are like, oh, we were going to send this to you in the summer and didn't.
Speaker 2:I know I'm getting the calls. I mean, we had a little bit of a cool spell a few weeks ago and then it got warm again. So it's kind of that second summer kind of situation here, and I'll take it, because it's going to be a long, cold winter and it's going to affect our heating bills and our customers heating bills, oh yeah, and our our. Um, at the top of the episode I talked about how we were trying to compare electric costs, heat pumps, things like that, and it just got it. Just, my head is on this topic a lot because of this whole energy initiative and all these incentives that have everybody out there. If you are at all related to HVAC, you are working on heat pumps like all the time, right, whether you're installing them, service them, replacing them, and we're starting to do that too. So, uh, we're heavily into the hydronic side of things, but we're starting to see heat pumps coming into our sector of of the business as well. So you can't escape it, put it that way, and it got me thinking.
Speaker 2:Today I want to talk about, like, how's it break down over the U? S and has the? Have things changed? Um, because of all this? Uh, electrification, does that make sense? Yeah Well, and so I looked up a website or I found a. I found a bunch of information, but I found on the U S energy information administration, the EIA. It's a independent statistics and analysis, so EIAgov, I don't know how independent.
Speaker 2:It is Got thatgov at the end, right, that's right. Here I am wearing my D fund, the IRS shirt. Um, so I'm really, I'm really a government guy, but, um, anyway, I digress. Natural gas you know how much natural gas accounts for? Like that's got, it's the number one fuel in the United States. Use the heat houses. Yeah, according to this website, um, it accounts for over half of all houses in the United States. Okay, is that surprising to you?
Speaker 1:I guess I kind of was a little bit surprised, but, um, but it seems to make sense. I mean, based on the cost, the price point of it, it seems like it would be the fuel that has got the widest network. I guess, if you will, yeah Well, I mean it does, but in theory, um, you?
Speaker 2:can move electricity to. I mean, everybody's got electricity in their house, right? So let's say, you know you're going to have to move electricity to the house, right, you've got electricity in their house, right? So, like, right, but we have more heating equipment connected to natural gas than any other fuel source, right?
Speaker 2:Um, and this report we're looking at is is a report on what are they? The short term energy outlook, and it's the winter fuels outlook for uh for this coming year, 2023. And it's a. It's a comparison to October of last year through the winter, and then it's a forecast for 2023. And so, under the natural gas um, you know category it was. It was surprising to see, and this might be. I don't know if this is political, attached to any kind of policies or anything like that, but I hate to. I'm not trying to politicize this by any means, but it's interesting because it says they in this report, uh, nearly half of all us households heat primary with natural gas. And it says we expect households that use natural gas as a primary heat space heating fuel will spend about $930 this winter. So that's an average, because, of course, it's going to be more in the coldest regions and less in warmer region, regions and 28, that's 28% more than they spent last winter.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:And it's saying that the forecasted increase in natural gas expenditures is a result of both higher expected prices and consumption 28% increase. You ready for that on your fuel bill? Because you eat with natural gas correct.
Speaker 1:Yeah, it will accept in the shop. Yeah, the shop's electric. But yeah, I don't know. Yeah, I mean, I guess we're ready for it and I'm bringing on, you know, because what are you going to do? You know? I mean, I guess the thing that to me, I look at that and I say, okay, what is the bearing on this 28% increase across the board? You know, for my customers let's just say all my natural gas customers are going to get a 28% increase. What do I tell those customers? Okay, hey, we're going to put in this new high efficiency boiler.
Speaker 1:That you should also be highly heavily looking at the heating, the envelope of your home, you know, get some weather stripping done. How are your windows, how are your attic insulation? You know, what kind of things can we do to, you know, curb some of the load? And it's surprising, we did a project here a year ago for a gal that was like, hey, you know, I want this new air conditioner and you know she doesn't have central air. So she wanted to.
Speaker 1:No, she did have central air but she's got a renter downstairs but she didn't want the freezer renter out and she's not zoned. It's kind of a goofy system, you know, and I was like you know, I don't, I don't know, I mean central air probably isn't your, your best, you know your best scenario. And we went in and said hey, you know what, rather than giving us 10 or $12,000 to do central air on your existing furnace, why don't you put $10,000 worth of insulation and windows in your home? I remember that job, yeah. And so Miles went over and finished doing an attic fan install here. It was this spring and she had gone through the winter, I think, with the new insulation and she was just ecstatic she's like this is the best thing ever she goes.
Speaker 1:My heating bills were like minuscule and you know, granted, I mean her, her in her particular case, she had four or three and a half inches of that pink like looks like chipped sawdust, have you?
Speaker 2:ever seen that stuff.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I did. I have, Yep, I have cellulose type wood based insulation. For sure going to cause cancer in California, 100% going to cause cancer somewhere. But she had only three and a half inches. It barely covered the bottom quarter of her rift dresses and that was all that was in there Attic open on in the in the one end into the garage that was unheated and uninsulated. What, yeah? And so, and she and she looked at it, she goes, I don't feel like this summer I may not even need an air conditioner, and I haven't talked to her since. So it'd be interesting to see how how the house was over this summer. We weren't exceptionally hot, but if just adding that insulation was the, you know, was the ticket, I mean, if you, let's say, you spent five grand on insulation, I mean that's a long-term investment for a pretty low cost really.
Speaker 2:It is and you're going to recoup it over time. But you're definitely not going to like sell the house tomorrow and be like oh, we put five grand in, give us five grand.
Speaker 1:No, because it's expected.
Speaker 2:Yeah exactly it's expected. Yeah, there's a lot of cost breakdowns on these fuels too. But the next category in this this was one that surprised me and this doesn't affect that cooling, but it would affect the people in the Northeast and there's a lot of older homes there that probably would benefit from from that envelope upgrade. Yeah, but they said that oh, where's the number? I just lost it. Dang it About 18% of households in the United States. No, that's not correct at all. Heating oils where I'm at. Can you see this on the chart? Where was that number? Oh boy, see, there you go. He hit record and you'll lose your mind 4% yes.
Speaker 1:Yeah, 4% of households are using Primary heating with heating oil.
Speaker 2:Yeah, 4%. Yeah, that's not a lot. No, and in our calculation remember last time we figured Okay, let me continue on this list one more time. The, the heating oil, was like seriously by far, almost 10 times the cost, over 10 times the cost of natural gas, using our, our super scientific method. Last time we calculated about this.
Speaker 1:Yep, our investigative journalism.
Speaker 2:It was, it was, but it says here that the average house, using as a primary heat source fuel oil, will spend about $2,350 this year, and and that's up 27% from last year.
Speaker 1:That's. That's a staggering number to me. I mean you look at that natural gas coming in average heating costs at 960 for the season yeah, versus 20 through 4, almost $2,400.
Speaker 2:Yeah, it's kind of a little incentive to be like. You know what I'm gonna. I'm gonna hook up to that grid. I think there's a lot of. I can't speak for anybody personally, but I've had so many conversations over the years. Our good buddy Dino yeah, he's over in Massachusetts and you know a spirotherm guy, heating oil country and he says people don't want gas in their house, they're afraid of it.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I, that's. That's interesting. I mean it's the of the of the oil customers I have here. I think primarily our, my customers are reluctant to change because they're concerned about the propane delivery they're considered about, concerned about losing power, which we usually combat the the losing electricity thing of. Because you can we convert that conversation from yes, it's true, if you heated solely with electric, you could lose electricity and not have heat. However, your electric burner on the front of your oil fired burner boiler also will not work, you know. So it's not like you're gonna take a little bit of heating oil out of the bottom of the bear bottom your tank and go pour it on some logs in the fireplace. You know it's doesn't really work that way.
Speaker 2:Well, I, I get a kick out of it because you know the heating oil customer needs electricity to burn in their power burner. Right, yeah, and everybody's like well, what if the power goes out? And, like you said, well, first of all, your boiler isn't gonna run, second of all, the pump that moves the water and your boiler and gonna run. Well, I could run a generator off. What, what do you run that generator off of you? Probably LP or natural gas? I don't. I mean, are there fuel oil generators? Absolutely sure are people calling up like Generac or Kohler and be like what's the going rate for a fuel oil generator? No, they're not.
Speaker 2:They're not because Generac's gonna be like we're busy click yeah so you know, either way, power is is needed, right, yeah, but that's gonna that. They're saying 27% increase, so on par with the increase on natural gas. But, like you said, 930 bucks versus 2350 bucks, that's a huge difference, sure is. Then there's a saying in the in, I guess in the northeast or on the east coast, they say distillate fuel. I guess this has to do with heating oil or some variation of it. I'm not exactly sure so I'm not gonna get into that. I don't know what distillate fuels I think they are heating oils, but different kinds of inventories or something like that. But the next on the chart electricity yeah here we go.
Speaker 2:What do you think the electric electric rates are gonna do this year, as everybody's bringing on more and more electricity into their homes?
Speaker 1:I, you know, I mean here's, here's where I guess I see electric rates at. I feel like electric rates are gonna are going to go up on the basis that we'd. We don't, in my opinion we don't have the infrastructure to continue the increase in usage and so therefore it's a supply-and-demand thing. You know, I know here. You know, for instance, in Montana, largely our electricity is generated by coal and we have a big coal power power plant, we have some bunch of hydroelectric, we got a bunch of wind energy and then we've got a ton of gas, natural gas type stuff. You know, I think you guys do a bunch of net, net gas, cogen type stuff.
Speaker 1:Yep, we've got, I don't, we've got one or two smaller biomass units, but that are, you know, like wood chip type thing. But I don't see that if, if the price of natural gas continues to raise, then the price of electricity overall has got to go up. I mean the two have to trend together at some point. I mean at some point they may split. But I feel like until, until you're doing like significant increases in wind or solar or hydroelectric, you can't really get away from some sort of fossil fuel generated electricity. I don't think that we're I don't know anybody building any more nuclear power plants.
Speaker 2:Well, is that a thing? Yeah, Uh, first one ever to come online or not ever. First one in like decades, more than two decades came online down and I think it's Georgia, Okay, Um, this year, yeah, and July or August, Uh, either way, yeah, but no, I mean in general, no, and they take decades to build Right and they cost hundreds of billions of dollars. It's pretty crazy, You're right, and it does trend with the increase, because a generation of electricity, uh, using you know, tied directly to natural gas in so many places there are nukes online in the United States and there are more and more, um, alternative fuel sources. As far as wind and solar, I mean, honestly, you drive through. This is not a. I'm not a proponent of any of that, I'm just saying, uh, you drive through Minnesota. I can just only anecdotally tell you you look out your window and there are solar farms everywhere. I mean, just where I grew up, I don't even have to drive 10 miles and I could probably pass a couple thousand acres or collective. Oh, they're fricking everywhere. Minnesota has a huge and I'll get the number wrong but we have as much solar exposure as, like, Miami, Florida, and that's, that's a fact. Actually, believe it or not, Like, because they they measure that in per square meter intensity. All this kind of stuff. It's crazy. And it's just the angle and the like, top, the topographic um makeup of the land, things like that. And so I guess solar farms do really well here. Um, for the most part I don't. I don't know how the performance is, but like they must think it's worth it because they're putting them everywhere.
Speaker 2:But the it does say under the electric column here for uh increase. It's not as high as it was for natural gas or oil, it's a lot lower, actually at 10%. But if you, if you dig through these numbers and I'm not again, it's not political here it looks like there is a lot of policy coming from the government and a lot of incentive, um, you know what's that? It's not like uh incentive but, um, when the government's subsidizing, subsidizing, thank you, Um, it looks like there's some subsidy subsidizing going on for the price. That's only a sure bringing that increase up 10%.
Speaker 2:But it does say four out of 10 health households in the United States rely on electric heat pumps or electric resistance heaters as a primary source for space heating. Only two thirds of homes in the South heat primarily with electricity, and electric heaters are also commonly used as secondary heating source in many us homes. Um, and then there's I mean there's a lot more actual data here, Uh, but it says we expect the us electricity prices for residential customers will be 6% higher this winter than last winter, at an average of 14.8% or 8 cents per kilowatt hour. So they're saying that 10%, uh, there's going to spend 10% more on electricity, but the actual, just the cost of electricity is going to be up 6% which.
Speaker 2:I think that's where that there's some subsidies in there which skew that number. But it does tie into the generation, electric, tied to natural gas. But natural gas isn't the only um fuel source or any or a way that we're generating electricity in the United States. So you know those. Those Canadians got a lot of that hydro power, didn't? Didn't you just say you had that? I'm sorry.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I miss it?
Speaker 2:Yeah, yep, and that brings a cost down, apparently.
Speaker 1:So I, you know, I'm sure it does. Um, and I know that there's there's a couple of different communities in in Montana anyway. Um, south of uh, just south of Flathead Lake, where they will just flat, won't put natural gas because the electric utility has uh said hey, you know what, we're generating this uh energy in your backyard and you're going to get the benefit of it. Um, mission Valley power has done a I think it's done a pretty phenomenal job, um, keeping that rate down and you go into those markets and now I mean they're got a big push for hydro or uh, for heat pump technology.
Speaker 1:Uh, and a lot of those houses up there are either wood they do a lot of wood burning, um, but they'll do like a you know, a fireplace or something like catalytic fireplace, and then they have a electric air handler and that's what their heat is. And so now we're seeing a whole bunch of those uh units, the tribal uh administration up there. I don't know what they did 38 homes this year that they they basically covered and a hundred percent. So they're uh, um, you know whatever, uh tribal member housing and they covered a hundred percent of the cost of a, of a heat pump and furnace upgrade, well, you know. So it's like well, that's, that's pretty sweet.
Speaker 2:Well, it is. It's more of those subsidies, though, right, so I gotta believe, it's hard to sustain that and I guess, coming from the tribe you know, their income sources are probably, I'm guessing, just based off of visiting Montana and then living here. Same situation sounds like we have kind of like the same makeup here for a lot of their incomes coming from the casinos, right, the gambling, the legalized gambling.
Speaker 1:Yeah, I don't, I, yeah, I think, I think that's, that's a bunch of it, but I don't know. You know this, this Salish and Kootenai tribe also does. We drove past that technology center.
Speaker 2:Oh, that's right.
Speaker 1:Yeah, and they, they do a pretty good job of you know, really outsource or looking for ways of making money off of manufacturing. That's right, that's right.
Speaker 2:Well, regardless of where the source is, I mean sure I didn't mean to like, I didn't mean like, well, it's gambling money, it doesn't mean anything actually, you know, it's not really even pertinent to the discussion.
Speaker 2:I just meant like it's subsidized, it is which is dropping, you know, like you said, is erasing the cost of those upgrades based off of, you know, trying to Right Make those homes more efficient. It's interesting because if you move on from electricity not the smallest number, because we already covered that smallest number was fuel oil, but propane would be Yep Only 1% more. In the United States it says about 5% of all US households use propane as the primary heat source.
Speaker 1:And that's that's surprising to me that that's as low as it is. Yeah, I guess I would have. I would have in my mind, you know, looked at that and said that natural gas, electricity and propane would all be like 30% shares.
Speaker 2:I, I, I agree. Apparently these numbers are broke down. I mean it's it's. It's a little deceiving because it's a range. So they say, in households in the Northeast, 1.2 thousand per region. Like basically they're breaking it down in Northeast, midwest and South and the highest number of homes in the United States using LP or propane is going to be in the Midwest at nearly two times what it is in the Northeast. So the numbers are different depending on which region you're in, which makes sense because I mean in fuel oil, like I know there's fuel oil in in outlying areas of Minnesota, but not even close to what it is for propane.
Speaker 2:And then I just looked it up. Actually, that's kind of how I got thinking about this again Yesterday in my comments and Instagram. Guy from Minnesota asked me he's like I'm out in you know the sticks here in way, northern Minnesota, up by Canadian border, and all I see around here is LP or oil. We don't see natural gas, which is crazy. Got me thinking he's like how much of the state has natural gas? And I looked it up and, according to the Google machine and the Minnesota department of energy and all that, 64% of all residents of the United s in Minnesota have natural gas 64% According to 12% LP. So like even at 12% of the state having LP, it's a bigger number per capita than it is in the Northeast and, according to this chart, almost two times as much. If you just look at Northeast, midwest and then South is in between, a little closer than Midwest actually.
Speaker 1:Yeah, so when you get out into I think you call it cabin country or whatever you know the up up in that area, is there still a lot of fuel oil in that area?
Speaker 2:There isn't a lot of fuel oil. No, okay, if you get out, the closer you get to the Canadian border.
Speaker 1:Yes, right.
Speaker 2:You get what we have, what's called the iron range. That's where the United States got all their tachanite, and tachanite is used to make steel through the 70s, early 80s. Their minds are still there. They're not as active because we import almost all of our steel Now, unfortunately. But you get that whole swath. It's just just giant area of Minnesota that's called the iron range. You get north of that. The iron range is three hours north of where I'm at. Okay, it's a couple hours south of Canada, right, you get north of the iron range and on the iron range fuel oil is there, absolutely Got it.
Speaker 2:The holdover, I think, is there are factors to that and that's a whole discussion. But my summation is this it costs a lot of money to switch the income rate up. There is a lot lower per capita, per household income is just lower. So less money to spend on upgrading a heating system. Of course, we know too that a lot of fuel oil systems will outlast. Gas systems, electric systems, I mean they're just, they're reliable, heavy built systems that were over engineered and so that you get a long life out of them. Even if they're past their life, people are still using them, right, yeah?
Speaker 2:And then there is the factor of fuel delivery and then the distribution network. So there's a pretty crazy factor that does come into play. And like 80% of the developed area in the state of Minnesota has natural gas distribution Right Now, I just said like only 64% of the state has natural gas, right, well, that's kind of a per capita land mass versus population. But you get into those outline areas, the numbers prove like there's just not distribution up there. So like if your houses are 20 acres apart, why the heck would the gas company come in? We're like we want to bring a half inch line up to your house and we want you under natural gas Because they're just not going to make any money. No, and so there's that. And then just the dependency of, or the almost dependability of, storage. So like if you store your own fuel on site and you get into one of these real winters that we have and that you have to and you know, if you've got the fuel there, you don't have to worry about having it brought.
Speaker 1:You know what I mean. Yeah, it's interesting that that fuel storage thing we did a Fujitsu air handler upgrade two years ago so upgraded the customers. Primary heat for the house was oil fired furnace, so it's a fuel oil furnace and he was like he had bought the house the year before, two years before, and he calls me in the spring after, you know, a couple of years ago, after, after the end of the hard, deep winter and they live way, way out in the sticks. You know, like nasty ugly road he plows like seven miles a road daily.
Speaker 1:Oh, my God, that's you know type thing, and he says, yeah, you know, we got to do something different.
Speaker 1:He goes you know, we spent a lot of money on fuel oil last year and I'm going to put in a bunch of solar this year to help offset our electric costs. Because, you know, we this, that and the other, and he goes. We're going to put in a big battery bank and so we can store energy over the, over the summer. And you know this. And I was like that's cool. And he's like I want to do a heat pump. And I was like OK, well, what are the reasons? What you know, why are let's, let's talk about this.
Speaker 1:And he goes well, I hauled eight, like 800 gallons of fuel oil to my house and I'm like what do you mean? You hauled it. And he's like the fuel oil company, my road's so crappy that the fuel oil trucks won't deliver to me. Well, fix your road. Well, he doesn't, he can't. Like it's yeah, I mean major in overhaul to do this. And I was just like yeah, holy cow. And he's. And he's like, yeah, so I have a bunch of these 35 gallon barrels and I just go down to the fuel oil company and I fill up these 35 gallon barrels and then I take them home and then hand transfer, pump them out into my heating tank, oh my so no, you're kidding me On the coldest days.
Speaker 2:he's just pumping as fast as it's pulling. Yeah, you should just hook the pump up to it. That's right, oh my God.
Speaker 1:And he had a dinosaur of this old furnace that was in there and I was just like, oh and so now I mean I think he's pretty happy with it, but he's got the solar is solar collector up there, and I think he said this last winter he goes. I've paid like $40 for the entire month of December for electricity.
Speaker 2:That's not bad at all, and I was like that's that's pretty reasonable.
Speaker 1:It's less than a dinner out. Yeah, he's above the kind of above the fog line that will get this nasty inversion in Missoula and you know, in the clouds, and so he's up, I don't know. He's probably pushing on 5000 feet in elevation and so he's above that. So he gets a lot of solar exposure, Tons and tons of solar exposure, so it works good for him. Down here in the valley, though, we get kind of kind of socked in with this nasty fog bank or bus, I don't know whatever you call it. We call it an inversion. Basically, it's where you end up with warm air under the cold air and it makes this layer of fog. And I saw I think I saw it when I was there- yeah, it's interesting.
Speaker 2:Yeah Well, you have mountains, which is automatically, according to me, better, just better. I mean, that's a blanket statement. There you go, better than my planes. I could roll a quarter to North Dakota. Anyway, that's it, dude.
Speaker 1:Yeah.
Speaker 2:Price of fuels are going up, there's the breakdown. The electric is not as high of an increase. I think that we can just totally go with the conspiracy theory here that it's incentivized by the government. That's what it is. They want to use electricity.
Speaker 1:Well, I mean, if they're going to recharge their drones, then they have to subsidize that because they can't go. Well, hey, pay for these drones and pay for those. You know recharging stations on every power line.
Speaker 2:Yeah, I mean every time you see a bird sitting out on the wire, that's right. But it's not an actual bird, right? It's just recharging. It's a drone. It's battery operated. They got to get their power for somewhere, that's right. All right, dude, let's wrap it. We're getting, we're right on time. 33 minutes, something Perfect. All right, have a good one.
